Hands to Work or Mouths to Feed?

India has surpassed China as the most populous country in the world. Can this work to our advantage, or spell disaster to the nation? A higher, younger population adds to the workforce and the growth of the country, but can play havoc on scarce resources…

There is big news—India has surpassed China as the most populous country in the world. As per UN data, our population as on 30th April 2023, was 142.7 crore. About one-sixth of the mankind on the planet is in India, while India occupies only 2.4 percent of the geographical area of the world. China which is now second to India in population has roughly three times the area of India, and its economy is five times that of India. This leads to the question as to whether this news is good or bad for India? Let us proceed to examine the issue briefly in this modest column.

Production vs consumption

Population is definitely a big issue but the bigger issue is the manner in which it is managed. The management of population can lead to either a demographic-dividend or demographic-catastrophe. Each person added on the planet gives one mouth to feed but also two hands to work and produce. If the hands are used properly, then there will be more production than consumption and as a result there will be prosperity. On the other hand, there will be scarcity as mouths will be eating, though hands are not working to produce proportionately. India is blessed with 68% of young population who are in the age range of 15-64 years. We have plenty of youth in the working age group and if they are skilful and working, then we can generate bounti-ful resources. The high population will thus give dividends. Unskilled youth and unemployment will give rise to social disturbance and anarchy. It will be better to not add to our population if we are unable to add employment. The choice is ours.

India is blessed with 68% of young population who are in the age range of 15-64 years. We have plenty of youth in the working age group and if they are skilful and working, then we can generate bounti-ful resources. The high population will thus give dividends. Unskilled youth and unemployment will give rise to social disturbance and anarchy

Exports boost

The populous skilled workforce will add to our service industry and to our exports in the service sector. The number of start-ups is growing and even the number of unicorns is more than a hundred and rapidly increasing. Our talented youth force are also migrating to all parts of the world. We are not only exporting services but also workforce. India gets benefitted with our people working outside India and sending remittances. India gets the highest remittance which hovered around 80 million US dollars till FY22 and which is roughly 3% of our GDP.

Big market

The high population of our country makes India a big market. We get global attention. We get high foreign direct investment. At the same time our economy becomes self- sufficient as we generate more for our larger consumption. Our labour remains cheaper and that helps on two counts—our cost of goods exported remains competitive while some big companies find it profitable to set up some manufacturing units in India. Earlier China prospered due to its high population in becoming the global hub of manufacturing, but now India is also picking up and making good of the lost time. India’s May 23 PMI has risen to a 31 month high. And a big population serves as a big cushion to defend our borders.

Higher demand

A higher population works as a catalytic agent in energising the economy. More people give rise to more consumption and hence more demand. More demand pushes production by adding more factories. This leads to more job creations. The economy gets strengthened. There emerges a healthy competition between the new population added and the additional jobs created. The icing on the cake is the enlargement of the strength of the younger workforce. Many rich countries are suffering today because of their aging population and reduction in birth rate.

Strain on resources

The other side of a rising population is not encouraging. The disadvantages are too many. First, is the impact on natural resources. There is more demand but natural resources are depleting. Take the example of water. This natural resource is important for our life. The rising population hits our soft water reserve. We find difficulty in providing clean drinking water and for irrigation. We also depend upon mineral resources. But more demand due to more population cannot keep our mineral reserves for long and thus it may affect our future.

Food shortage

Second, it results in the shortage of food. More people to feed strains food availability. Food crops are grown in the agricultural land which does not expand but shrinks due to development. There is a limit to increase the yield of crop by using fertilisers and new technology. We can help ourselves for a limited time and then we will have to depend upon food imports which will put a strain on our economy. Food grains cannot be manufactured in factories and so a population explosion can cause scarcity.

Third, air which is the basic need for our life sustenance gets affected. A big population has a direct connection with pollution. There is more carbon emission by more people using more vehicles. Trees are cut for development. Greenhouse effect results due to the huge population which burns more fuel. There is more coal burning in the factories and also for the supply of thermal power to the increasing population. The difficulty is that we have to cater to the needs of the people and in the process air quality becomes a direct victim.

High GDP, low per capita

Fourth, on the economic front, it is difficult to increase per capita income or GDP, if the population is high and keeps on growing. India has emerged as the fifth largest economy and in all probability we may become the third largest economy before 2030. We feel proud of this achievement but we are dismayed by the per capita income which is increasing but not in proportion to the growing economy. Our GDP growth rate today is 7.2% for FY 2022-23. This statistic beats all prior estimates including the RBI estimate. We are the fastest growing large economy but we feel disappointed to see this data in the perspective of per person. This mismatch cannot be corrected till we have a break on the ever increasing population.

Strife and crime

Fifth, a big population affects peace in the society. Jobs do not grow in conjunction with our rising population. It is thus very natural that many of our young population will remain unemployed or poorly employed. This generates frustration and it may trigger social- strife and crime. If the rise in population includes sex-imbalance, then there may arise a situation where all the people may not get married. This will add to psychological problems, in addition to social problems. We need to work on the issue of population, both scientifically and with a human angle. First we have to fix a reasonable goal and then devise our strategies. To some extent a large population is good but excess of it is bad. We have to search for the fulcrum of our required population. We must learn lessons from China. China adopted the one- child policy in 1980 to stop the growing population. It was forced by a cruel law. However, this policy was withdrawn in 2016, when China could see the failings of this policy. Workforce age was seen changing adversely. There was shrinkage in the number of young workers, which affected its economy. So in 2016, the Chinese were permitted to have two children and in 2021 there was a further revision of policy, when having three children was permitted.

A finite world

Next, the biggest problem of unemployment arising out of a huge population has to be tackled by some out-of-the box solutions. It may be very difficult to give jobs to a large number in the organised sector alone. There has to be population management to our advantage. On the family front, people should adopt children. A finite world can only support a finite population.

“By improving health, empowering women, population growth comes down,” said Bill Gates and we should give serious thought to it. It has been said that either we reduce the world’s population voluntarily or Nature will do this but brutally. India being the largest populous country, we should keep this in mind.