Never Mind the Nay-Sayers, India is Rising!

Despite the challenges of inflation and unemployment, which have bitten many a nation, and badly, there are many areas where the country is making strides that we can be proud of. Let’s look beyond the ‘missing tile’ and focus on its growing capabilities and stature in the comity of nations...

"India is rising very fast and is being appreciated the world-over, but we are stuck with the missing tiles of inflation and unemployment. Nobody can deny that there exists some gap in the profile of rising India, but these gaps are much less than the bigger things that happened in the country"

A well-known hotelier had hotels in many cities. His new hotel was constructed on a lavish scale. The centre of excellence in this hotel was the swimming pool. The best tiles available in the world were used in this pool with eye-catching design and craftsmanship. Due to an inadvertent error, one tile was not placed properly and a gap got left behind. One more tile was needed to fill the gap, but that was missing. People visiting the hotel praised the hotel. They appreciated the beautiful tiles of the swimming pool till their eyes fell on the missing tile. The visitors used to feel unhappy when their attention remained stuck on the missing tile gap.

‘Missing’ syndrome

This story is basically a psychological experiment known as the ‘missing-tile syndrome’. Despite the presence of the best of things, it is one bad thing which normally attracts the attention of the people. It is nothing but human psychology. This story can vividly be seen in the context of the Indian economy. India is rising very fast and is being appreciated the world-over, but we are stuck with the missing tiles of inflation and unemployment. Nobody can deny that there exists some gap in the profile of rising India, but these gaps are much less than the bigger things that happened in the country.

Another failing which is being spoken about is the falling value of the rupee as against the US dollar. Let us view the Indian profile in view of the high decibel criticisms levelled against it. It is an established fact that there is nothing absolute. Nothing is absolutely good or absolutely bad. They have to be rated in comparison. The great scientist Einstein evolved a theory of relativity accepting that there is nothing absolutely good. Having said that, the performance of India has to be looked at in comparison with the performance of other countries, particularly the developed countries.

Better than others

Let’s take inflation. The US is facing its worst inflation in the last 40 years. The same is the situation in developed European countries. China, Russia, Brazil are in an equally bad condition. India’s inflation is hovering around 7% and it is slightly above the threshold upper limit of 6% set by RBI.

Or unemployment-the world is suffering from unemployment today. This is because inflation has been closely associated with development the world over. IMF has warned that globally, the recession is at the brink. Poor development gives rise to big losses of jobs and unemployment. Bloomsberg has given the recession probability forecast for Asian economies as under:

• Sri Lanka – 85%
• South Korea – 25%
• Japan – 25%
• China – 20%
• Hong Kong – 20%
• Australia – 20%
• Taiwan – 20%
• Pakistan – 20%
• Malaysia – 13%
• Vietnam – 10%
• Thailand – 10%
• Philippines – 8%
• Indonesia – 3%
• India – 0%

As for the US, growth is negative and it is on the brink of recession. No major economies are doing good. Yes, India has the unemployment problem and it is mainly due to the huge population, but the future does not still look bad. When other countries are likely to fall, India is likely to grow, as recession is not going to hit India.

The falling rupee against the US dollar is another area of criticism. Here again, India has done much better than other countries. Because of inflation, US has been hiking bank rates and this is making the dollar costlier. Foreign currencies are naturally falling against the US dollar.

"The US is facing its worst inflation in the last 40 years. The same is the situation in developed European countries. China, Russia, Brazil are in an equally bad condition. India’s inflation is hovering around 7% and it is slightly above the threshold upper limit of 6% set by RBI"

Fall vs US dollar (year-to date)

• Indian Rupee - 6.5%
• Australian dollar – 7.5%
• South African Rand – 8.59%
• Chinese Renminbi -8.72%
• Euro – 12.5%
• New Zealand Dollar 12.23%
• South Korean won – 14.53%
• British pound – 14.92%
• Japanese Yen – 19.79%
• Pakistan Rupee – 23.77%

An important point to be noted here is that the Indian rupee has considerably appreciated as against other foreign currencies, except the US dollar. The Ukraine–Russia war, coupled with inflation is making other currencies fall compared to the US dollar. India stands taller than other major countries on the economic issues on which it is being criticised.

Major marches

India is the 5th biggest economy in the world and it is on the way to becoming the 3rd biggest economy in a short while. India, which has only been importing weapons has now started exporting them too. Recently, India commissioned INS Vikrant, which is an indigenously made aircraft carrier. India has also commissioned the light combat helicopter ‘Prachand’ into its air force, which is again indigenously made. In the field of diplomacy, India is considered with respect and is looked upon as a possible mediator for the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

In the field of pharmaceuticals, India has shown that it is capable of creating and manufacturing Covid vaccines in a short time and even establishing a world record of giving vaccine shots to more than two billion people. Vaccines were also given to needy countries. GDP growth statistics as of today show that India is the fastest growing major economy. India is pushing itself to become self-sufficient in major sectors and also establish itself as a significant player in the global supply chain.

India is progressing fast despite many limitations. It commands respect globally. People have to see India from beyond the ‘missing-tile-syndrome’ and visualise India as a powerful growing country.