An avoidable war...
The ostensible reasons for Russia invading Ukraine may be many but the most tragic fallout is much avoidable death and destruction. Not to speak of economic hardships rippling across the world. Was this war necessary at all? Could the contributors to this war-Russia, Ukraine, as well as the western world-who with their implicit assurance and posturing contributed to the war, have worked differently to avoid this war? Starting a war is far too easy but putting an end to it is not. There are other lessons to learn too, from this most recent war...
The most important issue of the world today is the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine as it had reasons to believe that things happening there were not good for it. The apparent reason for the Russian invasion was NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) coming very close to Ukraine. Russia never wanted Ukraine to join the European Union (EU) and NATO as then, its long border with Ukraine could attract hostile countries of western Europe and America.
Russia’s gripe
Ukraine was a part of the erstwhile USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) which was created by Lenin in 1922, and it got disintegrated in 1991 when all the merged countries got separated. After Russia, Ukraine was the biggest component of the USSR and also economically, it was only second to Russia. Separation is always sad and never welcomed and this happened due to the Cold War between the US and USSR as they were the only superpowers then.
Until Ukraine had a pro-Russian President, things were sailing smoothly. After the change of guard in Ukraine, things started getting bitter between Russia and Ukraine as the new dispensation started tilting toward the US and other European countries of the EU. Russia started supporting separatists in the two neighbouring provinces of Ukraine and even annexed Crimea of the Ukrainian territory on the Black Sea, in 2014. The relationship between Russia and Ukraine has been going from bad to worse since the Crimean annexation and Russia stood firm against western threats and sanctions.
Zelenskyy’s failing
The present president of Ukraine has further deteriorated the situation as he has fallen for the promises given by the EU and the US and he expressed his keen desire to join the EU and NATO. The Ukrainian President was convinced that in the event of any problem with Russia, the EU and the US would stand by it. Things have not happened as per the expectations of the Ukrainian President as Ukraine is fighting the Russian battle all alone.
The apparent reason for the Russian invasion, that Ukraine may be joining NATO can be just one of the many reasons, which only Putin knows, at this stage. The Russian President has said that the war will stop only when his goals of attack are fulfiled. It is well known that Ukraine is rich in reserves of minerals and is also rich in agricultural produce like sunflower, wheat and potatoes. Russia has recently deteriorated economically. Annexing Ukraine maybe for the economic reason of enriching itself.
Buffer nation?
Besides, it is always good to have a neutral country on its border. It has been observed so far in the war that Russia is attacking nuclear power plants and as per the statements given, it appears that Russia is suspecting that Ukraine is in the process of developing dirty bombs, and therefore, war may also be for destroying this ability of Ukraine. The Russian goal for war may also be to reset Ukraine, as the eastern and southern areas may be annexed by Russia and the western area of Ukraine may be left as a buffer state with a pro-Russian head of state. The new Ukraine as per the goal of Russia, may be to create a land-locked country. This guesswork is based on the present state of the war where port cities and eastern cities like Kharkiv are seeing maximum attacks.
Ukraine has suffered a lot. Buildings, military installations, schools, colleges and even civilian population have been hit hard. The beautiful country is in ruins in many places. About 15 lakh people have already left the country to save their lives. Mercenaries have also arrived on both sides to fight on the streets. Many Ukrainians too have decided to fight with arms given by the government. It is commendable that they are trying to withstand the war against a powerful and militarily far superior country. It is all due to the determination of Ukrainians. There is a threat to the life of President Zelenskyy but he has declined to run away.
India is geographically far away but about 20,000 Indian students were caught in the warzone. The Government of India actively participated in the evacuation, and as of today (while writing this column), roughly 19,000 students have already been evacuated. We, however, lost one student in the warzone.
"The present President of Ukraine has further deteriorated the situation as he has fallen for the promises given by the EU and the US, and he expressed his keen desire to join EU and NATO. The Ukrainian President was convinced that in the event of any problem with Russia, the EU and the US would stand by it. Things have not happened as per the expectations"
Kyiv city (Ukraine)Where are the ‘friends’
Europe and the US have not sent any soldiers and the only help they are giving Ukraine is money and weapons. President Zelenskyy now holds his so-called friends, the EU and the US, responsible for the killings and for the destruction of Ukraine. The request made by Zelenskyy to declare the sky of Ukraine as a no-fly zone has been negated by the western world. Meanwhile, Russia has been seen alerting its nuclear system. Sanctions have been placed against Russia but at the same time, there is a counter threat by Russia to lock the oil and gas pipeline to Europe, as Europe is mainly dependent on the supply from Russia for its oil and gas.
War may continue for some more time but the end is known to all-that powerful Russia will win. This win may not, however, end the problem. The loss and suffering of innocent people cannot be redeemed. Russia may have valid reasons in its national interest for starting the war but a question mark will remain as to whether a war was necessary? The question mark will also point to Ukraine, as it failed to understand the prevailing situation. Ukrainians cannot be killed for the love of the EU, the US and NATO. Now, after much destruction, President Zelenskyy has stated that NATO is not for Ukraine and now has no desire left to join them.
Third World War averted?
One thing is however good-that the third world war is not in sight as the western world is not participating in the war. It may look unkind to Ukraine but it is good for the world and humanity. The third world war would have been a full-blown nuclear war. Sanctions are meant to punish Russia but instead, Russia has punished the world. Already Brent’s crude price is hovering around $140 per barrel and it may even touch $200 per barrel.
Countries like India will suffer badly. Our Budget 2022 visualised an oil price of $70-75 per barrel and now we will suffer deeply for the un-provisioned oil bill. The world has just come out of Corona and now this war will create economic havoc by creating high inflation and the disruption of the global supply chain. The war of Ukraine may end but guerrilla war can break up in the region due to mercenaries on the streets and with supplied weapons in the hands of Ukrainians. It may become difficult to establish peace there. I am reminded of a saying that war is a cowardly escape from the problems of peace. Wars do not bring lasting peace but only lasting deaths. Finally, as Bertrand Russel said, “War does not determine who is right-only who is left”. War settles nothing, said Dwight Eisenhower.
Unnecessary war?
There is no doubt that war is a great evil but sometimes due to extreme circumstances, it may become a necessity. The world will ponder on whether the Ukraine war was really necessary. Many of the wars in the past have also been started without any valid reason. Iraq was invaded by the US on the supposition that it had nuclear weapons but finally it was accepted by the US that the information was incorrect. The Mahabharat was a big war in ancient India, caused by serious violation of what was right, and Lord Krishna himself oversaw the occurrence of this war.
When Ukraine separated from the USSR, it had about 200 nuclear warheads on its soil. Ukraine returned them to Russia under a guarantee by the US, Europe and Russia that its security would be protected. In hindsight, today it is believed that Ukraine might not have suffered this war, had the nuclear deterrence remained with them. The conclusion is that nuclear weapons may be bad for humanity but they are a good deterrence to guarantee peace.
Solo game!
This war also teaches us that in the event of war, a country has to fight alone and hence, self-sufficiency in weapons is very important. Our call for an ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ is very relevant. Military power is a big deterrence against unwarranted war. When war looks imminent, we should have with us two warriors: patience and time. This way, a battle can be won without firing a single bullet. The definition of war as given by Erich Hartmann: “War is a place where the young kill one another without knowing or hating each other because of the decision of old people who know and hate each other, without killing each other”. It may be easy to avoid battles that can lead to a war, but to conclude them is very difficult.