Corona Catapults Change

With social distancing becoming the norm, corporates, educationists and the governments will have to gear up to effective ways of productivity and positivity through a safe distance. Which means WFH (Work From Home) is essentially a new norm. And much more insight from former Indian Ambassador to China, Gautam Bambawale, about the post Coronavirus Pandemic era

“China’s image in the rest of the world has been badly tarnished and no amount of propaganda is likely to change this impression amongst civil society in the globe”

Gautam Bambawale, Former Indian Ambassador to Bhutan, Pakistan and China, is considered as an expert in China. He joined the Indian Foreign Service in August 1984. He studied Mandarin Chinese and served in the Indian missions at Hong Kong and Beijing from 1985 to 1991. Upon his return to the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi, he served as the first Desk Officer for China in the Ministry. From 1993 to 1994, Bambawale was the Director in the Americas Division of the Ministry. Bambawale was the Minister (Political) and Head of the Political Wing at the Indian Embassy in Washington, D.C. from July to September 2007. From September 2007 to December 2009, he served as India’s first Consul General in Guangzhou, China. From December 2009 to July 2014, he was the Joint Secretary (East Asia) at the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi.

From 1994 to 1998, he was the Director of the Indian Cultural Centre in Berlin, Germany where he dealt with Public diplomacy. From March 2001 to June 2002, he worked at the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi as the Staff Officer to the Foreign Secretary of India. Subsequently, he functioned at the Prime Minister’s Office in New Delhi as the Deputy Chief in the Division of National Security Affairs, Defence and International Policy. He also served as the Indian Ambassador to Bhutan from August 2014 to December 2015 and the High Commissioner of India to Pakistan from January 2016 to November 2017.

Bambawale is presently the distinguished professor, Symbiosis International University. He speaks to Corporate Citizen on the worldwide effect of the coronavirus pandemic which began in Wuhan, China.

As Indian Ambassador to China, what were your observations of the growth of the Chinese economy?

It was as recently as 1978 that China first embarked on economic reforms and opening to the outside world. This was when China decided that like the Asian Tiger economies she too could grow economically by expanding trade and foreign investment. She also opened up some of her famous Special Economic Zones. The results are there for all to see. Over the past four decades China grew at roughly 9.5% per annum and today she is the 2nd largest economy in the world with a GDP of roughly USD 13 trillion. Her per capita income too has grown tremendously and the quality of life of the Chinese people has reached that of a great level of comfort. Today, the people of China dress better, eat better and have better housing than in 1978. You can see this with your own eyes on the streets of China. To sum up, there can be no doubting the tremendous economic growth that has occurred in China.

“When the way we live changes, then not merely the corporate world but everything will change. When social distancing becomes the norm, corporate India will have to rethink how production is to be organised. Schools and colleges will have to re-imagine how classes will be run. Transportation will have to re-interpret how to get people from Place A to Place B. So, a lot of change is just round the corner”

China’s image has been tarnished in the case of the coronavirus pandemic. What is your take on China as the source of the pandemic?

There can be little doubt that the current Coronavirus originated in Wuhan. I know that city of China well, since that is where the First Informal Summit between PM Modi and President Xi took place in April 2018. I was with them in Wuhan at that time. I have visited it often in the past. Since the virus came from there, I believe there should be no hesitation in calling this the Wuhan Virus. Also, I strongly believe that the Chinese Government should have publicly accepted the virus in early January 2020 rather than three weeks later. It was this delay of three crucial weeks that has made all the difference in the widespread of the virus to over 180 countries in the world. It was during those three weeks in January 2020 that millions of people from Wuhan city and Hubei Province travelled all over China and the world, which contributed to the spread of the virus. Please understand, the fault lies with the Government of China and not the people of China who have also suffered as a result of these mistakes and missteps. As a result, China’s image in the rest of the world has been badly tarnished and no amount of propaganda is likely to change this impression amongst civil society in the globe.

How do you think China has handled the containment of the pandemic and how would you compare it with other countries like USA and India?

As I said earlier, the Chinese Government was about three weeks late in declaring this an epidemic or pandemic. Once they did so, they took very stringent measures and actions to protect the rest of China from the spread of the pandemic. They locked down Wuhan city and Hubei province completely with no trains or flights to these places. Road travel was also prohibited. Through such stringent measures, they were eventually able to control the pandemic, although many people in Wuhan lost their lives. However, I do not agree with the offensive propaganda which China seems to have launched now to rectify the tarnished image that they have earned. It will not have any impact on public opinion in the rest of the world.

The entire world has come to a grinding halt for the same reason and undergoing the same kind of lockdown. Do you see any lessons in these strange and catastrophic phenomena?

To my mind, there are several lessons we should draw from these strange times. First, we cannot keep playing around with our environment and our natural heritage by constantly changing the man-nature balance. We need to do something strong about climate change. We also need to control population growth. India has to make a major contribution to both these goals. Second, we must spend more on public health and education, so as to prepare our people well for such pandemics and other crises. This needs to be done urgently. Third, we must rethink our growth pattern and ensure that it does not occur through enhanced urbanisation. We have to decentralise growth. Finally, we have to accept that the globe and all humanity is highly interconnected and what happens in one part of the world impacts other parts too. Hence, it is essential to enhance and promote international cooperation.

Do you think there will be a change in the world order? How?

What has been happening over the past few years is that the United States has increasingly been turning inward due to the problems and issues she is facing domestically. Their handling of the coronavirus crisis has once again highlighted these aspects. So the virus is going to accelerate the process of the US turning inward, since she has many problems which need urgent rectification. On the other hand, China which has been impatient to take leadership of the world has been impacted badly by the Wuhan Virus. Its image, its credibility and its soft power have taken a serious hit. Hence, both these powers of the world will not be in a position to provide global leadership in the world. Hence, I visualise that a group of middle powers such as Germany, Japan, India and South Africa will have to come together and provide the much-needed leadership on global issues.

What do you perceive of the impending world economy and what would be the right methods to overcome them?

Naturally, the result of the virus and the lockdowns in so many countries is going to result in a dip in growth across the globe. We are already in a recession. Economic activity will resume only slowly and hesitatingly. So the prospects of an immediate rebound look bleak. I am afraid many things are not going to be the same as we come out of this pandemic. There will be a new normal and humankind will have to adjust and change to these realities. For example, before the virus, there was a lot of discussion on the future of work. Well, the future is here. WFH – Work from Home is going to be the norm and not a temporary phenomenon. All of us have to get used to this. Governments will have to play an important role in the economic recovery and hence the State is back with a bang. International travel will decrease over the next few years. Firms too will have to make these adjustments. So, the recovery post virus is not going to be easy and smooth. All of us will have to adjust to new realities which have been thrust upon us by this pandemic.

Do you think the role of Ambassadors would change? How?

As I said earlier, there will be a resurgence of the State or Nation-State. So the role of Ambassadors will not change. What will change is the way in which they work or function. They will still represent their own country but the methodology of work will be different. There will be more video conferencing, more conference calls, newer methods of communicating with your home Government. All of this was, in any case, beginning to happen. It will get accelerated as a result of the pandemic.

Would it be a new era for diplomatic relations between countries?

Diplomatic relations will continue to be important. There may be a re-ordering and reorienting of diplomatic priorities of a country, especially if the international order changes as I have predicted earlier in this interview.

Do you think the world is a global village concept will take a hit?

No, I do not think so. What has the Wuhan Virus shown us? That the world is so interconnected that viruses like this can quickly spread all over the globe. Yes, some countries may turn inward, but in order to resolve issues facing all of humanity it will be necessary to have greater and closer international cooperation.

Will the corporate world in India and elsewhere also undergo an unprecedented change? If so, in what way?

When the way we live changes, then not merely the corporate world but everything will change. When social distancing becomes the norm, corporate India will have to rethink how production is to be organised. Schools and colleges will have to re-imagine how classes will be run. Transportation will have to re-interpret how to get people from Place A to Place B. So, a lot of change is just round the corner.

On the personal front, what are the positive and negative side effects of the pandemic that will rule your life?

Working from home is the new normal. This is likely to continue and even increase over time. For that, all of us will require better connectivity than we have at present. That is an opportunity. Video conferencing over the Internet is here to stay. One gets more time with your family. Most things will continue to be delivered directly home. Payments will increasingly be through an electronic medium. Downsides will include how does one travel when needed? We shall have to wait and see.

“There will be a new normal and humankind will have to adjust and change to these realities. For example, before the virus there was a lot of discussion on the future of work. Well, the future is here. WFH – Work from Home is going to be the norm and not a temporary phenomenon”

Which has been your favourite posting?

I have enjoyed all my posting in foreign countries. I cannot choose between them. It is like asking someone to choose your favourite child, which is not possible!

What is your advice to the younger generation?

Be positive: The younger generation will adapt better and faster to the changes which are going to come over the next few years. So they will be better suited to take on challenges as well as opportunities.

Be optimistic: That kind of mindset will help you to adapt to change and to get the best out of it.

Be a risk-taker: You will benefit from the opportunities that come your way. This is also the philosophy I live by.