The immediate consequence of the Pulwama carnage is the sense of fear developed in the State of Jammu and Kashmir
The Jammu-Srinagar highway is the main connectivity route between the two regions of the State. Numerous attacks have happened on this route. Is the highway secure for the movement of troops anymore? What are the mechanisms in place...?
The Pulwama terror attack, which took away lives of over 40 paramilitary men, has sparked a raging debate on how India should respond to Pakistan. Planners of this attack, their logistical support and infrastructure are still in place. In a video recorded before the attack, the young suicide bomber claimed that there are more attacks waiting to happen. While the Governor of Jammu and Kashmir has admitted of the security lapses that lead to this attack, there should be a determined focus on preventing a second strike. There is also a loud chorus arguing for a Pakistan centric response, but the establishment should not lose track of the internal lapses and the possible future consequences of the internal failures. Below are the 10 hard questions that come before me.
First. The suicide bomber Aadil Ahmed, in the video, spun out a communal lexicon while explaining his reasons and motivation for conducting this strike. Some clashes have already been reported from Jammu. The collective moral of the nation will be tattered if communal clashes occur in Jammu and Kashmir and other states. It should be ensured that law and order is maintained and a communal backlash is prevented.
Second. The large quantity of explosives used in this attack raises serious questions on the effectiveness of the counterinsurgency (and counterterrorism) grid. How did such a large cache of explosives reach the Pulwama district of South Kashmir? Were the explosives smuggled across the border? Were the explosives procured internally? Irrespective of whether the explosives were smuggled in or procured internally, serious questions need to be asked about the effectiveness of the security forces in controlling the further proliferation of the explosive materials.
Third. The planners of the attack may have recruited a local Kashmiri boy to execute the suicide bombing, and he may not have needed elaborate training for the execution. Perhaps, the only qualification for such an attack was driving skills and a die-hard motivation to carry a Fedayeen (suicide) strike. Given the rising level of recruitment of local Kashmiris in the Pakistan-based groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), would it not be easy for the recruiters to find motivated local youth to conduct more attacks? Do the security forces have an elaborate intelligence gathering mechanism to track the activity of such recruits?
Four. There has been a vehement denial in Kashmir and in some circles in Delhi regarding the trend of radicalization of Kashmiri youth. Fardeen Khanday was one of the first Fedayeen attackers recruited by the JeM. In a video recorded before his death, he called for more boys to join the cause of JeM. From the news reports, it appears that the suicide bomber Aadil Ahmed joined JeM two months after Fardeen’s attack. Is a new crop of homegrown suicide bombers and Fedayeen attackers coming up in Jammu and Kashmir?
Five. As per a report published in The Times of India, Afghan war veteran and IED specialist Abdul Rasheed Ghazi infiltrated into the Kashmir valley in December last year. This report, quoting intelligence inputs, suggested that Ghazi was sent by the JeM to avenge the killing of Azhar Masood’s nephews, Talha and Usman. The video released by the suicide bomber also claimed that one of the main motivations of the attack was a revenge of the killings of Talha and Usman. This raises serious questions on the growing infiltrations along the line of control. The Union Government has largely maintained a silence on the cross border infiltrations. At a time when the JeM is sending its best fighters, which include nephews of Azhar Masood, to conduct attacks in India, the questions that arise are (1) what is the likely number of such highly trained fighters active now in the valley? (2) Why are these infiltrations not being curbed on the Line of Control? (3) How do infiltrators traverse the distance and manoeuvre through the security grid from the LoC to the districts of South Kashmir?
Six. The Jammu-Srinagar highway is the main connectivity route between the two regions of the State. It is the most utilized route for the mobilisation of the troops connecting the two different regions. Numerous attacks have happened on this route. Is the highway secure for the movement of troops anymore? How will the route be secured if India decides to go on a full-scale strategic escalation against Pakistan? What are the mechanisms in place to secure the highway? Has any lesson been learnt from the continued attacks on the highway since the year 2016?
Clearly, no lessons have been learnt from the past experiences, especially the IC 814 hijack in Srinagar in December 1999 and also the Sukma Maoist attacks...
Seven. Before and after the hanging of Afzal Guru, the parliament attack accused, the Indian media and intelligentsia brazenly eulogized the convict, turning him into a cult figure. While the JeM has taken the responsibility for the Pulwama attack, why is the media shying away from naming the “Afzal Guru Squad” the Fedayeen wing of the JeM for conducting attacks post-Burhan Wani encounter? Did the sympathy wave created by the media and intelligentsia for Afzal Guru overlook the consequences of the glorification of individuals accused of terrorism?
Eight. Some sections of the Indian media and security establishment had overzealous obsession with Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hafeez Sayeed. This singular obsession with this terror group made other Pakistan based groups appear less significant in comparison, and perhaps that is why the strategic community didn’t pay much attention to the JeM. With the revival of the JeM, followed by the re-emergence of the Al Badr group in Kashmir valley, it seems the prime time analysis which is prone to myopic viewpoints fail to inform policymakers and the general public of the looming threats. Al Badr, along with Gulabadeen Hikmatyar’s Hizb-e-Islami, is known to have fought in the Afghan war against the Soviet forces. The JeM is also said to have been linked with Deobandi Afghan Taliban.
Nine. The immediate consequence of the Pulwama carnage is the sense of fear developed in the state of Jammu and Kashmir which could possibly lead to rescheduling or cancellations of the parliamentary polls in the state. Ever since the Jammu and Kashmir came under the central rule, efforts have been made to revive the electoral politics in the state. The State and Central Governments have failed to conduct elections in the Anantnag parliamentary constituency of South Kashmir and the Lok Sabha seat is vacant since April 2016. Should the government give Pakistan, the terror groups and the separatists a sense of victory by not holding or delaying the parliament polls?
Ten. There was a clear intelligence input regarding a possible IED attack. An intelligence note, which is now in public circulation, suggests that all branches of the CRPF, the BSF, the Indian Army, the CISF, the ITBP and the Jammu and Kashmir Police were warned of a large scale attack. The Governor of Jammu and Kashmir has admitted “security lapses” leading to the deadly attack. While the Governor’s admission is welcome, can the individuals involved in the key decision-making at the highest level of the State and Central Government continue to hold the charge? The current security is not just precarious but utterly insensitive too. The possibility of another terror strike looms large, and the government has as per allegations appointed “yes-men” in key security assignments in the state. Most of the most talented officers, including officers with decades of counterinsurgency (counterterror) experience, have been given insignificant postings in the State police and central agencies.
Clearly, no lessons have been learnt from the past experiences, especially the IC 814 hijack in Srinagar in December 1999 and also the Sukma Maoist attacks in which CRPF also had suffered heavy losses. Before any strategic or a diplomatic response is calibrated by the Government of India, accountability for the internal failures must be fixed. And heads must roll!
(The author is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF). His research focuses on Kashmir conflict, Pakistan and terrorism)
It was a cowardly act of mindless violence that has left the entire nation aghast and horrified. The foreign hand is well established since the terrorist involved had allegiance with the Pakistan based terrorist organization, Jaish-e- Mohammad (JeM)
The terrorist attack on a CRPF convoy at Pulwama, Srinagar, is a tragedy of monumental proportions. It was a cowardly act of mindless violence that has left the entire nation aghast and horrified. The foreign hand is well established since the terrorist involved had allegiance with the Pakistan based terrorist organization, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM). As the country grapples with the calamity, many questions are being raised about the attack and the possible reaction of the Government to the same; volumes have already been said and written about the same.
It is being alluded that there was an intelligence failure and a security lapse in assessing the danger being posed in a movement of such big convoys of security forces. There is also talk of a lack of synergy between security forces in the passage of intelligence. One needs to remain assured that the intelligence network in Kashmir is strong, effective and synergized as is visible through the incisive and very successful joint counter- terrorist attacks being launched in the valley since the last year plus. It needs to be acknowledged here that the enemy we are dealing with is equally determined and strives to finds ways to break our network! He will succeed sometimes, as in this unfortunate incident.
The increasing capacity of Pakistan based JeM in influencing the conflict situation in Kashmir needs to be assessed in detail. This incident was a Fiyadeen (Suicide) attack by a local terrorist and preparing a person for such an operation takes a lot of time and effort. Preparation of the attack, identifying the target, carrying out the research and reconnaissance, getting the necessary explosives and the vehicle, all require detailed and professional planning. It is not something that can be done by a novice terrorist or a single individual. The JeM was also behind the recent grenade attack on a school in Pulwama in which 19 students were injured; it is also responsible for mobilization of civilians for creating disruptions during counter-terrorist attacks. That the JeM has developed such capacities, which also include psychological conditioning of locally recruited terrorists and detailed planning for engineering of violence, is something to think about.
The time has come for the government to remain aloof from political pressures and optimally utilise all resources at its disposal to address the situation in Kashmir. Strong action needs to be taken to stop the process of radicalization that is in place across the Kashmir valley through paid agents of the Pakistan based terrorist machinery. How is the Hurriyat being able to implement its abhorrent protest calendars with such relative ease? Will the Hurriyat now condemn this dastardly, inhumane and cowardly act? If not, then should it not be taken for granted that the conglomerate supports the same and, on this basis, it be declared as an enemy of the state.
The most urgent requirement of the moment, however, is for the nation to stand steadfast behind its security forces in this moment of grief. The families of those killed need to be given succour and looked after. This set back provides no reason for doubting the capability and capacity of the security forces to deal with the situation in Kashmir, on the other hand, they need to be assured of the Nations faith in their ability and helped to overcome the huge loss of their comrades.
The media would be well advised to desist from finding fault in the operational procedures and try to blame the entire incident on intelligence failure etc. There is no scope here for sensationalizing the incident nor is there any need to call Pakistan based commentators on television shows where they can lie blatantly and gloat over the dastardly incident. It is well known that Pakistan is behind the attack, so there is no need to dwell on the subject! There is a need to exhibit sensitivity for the lives of the nation’s soldiers lost. It is best to remain assured that any loopholes found in the standard operating procedures will be identified and rectified. It is in the interest of the security forces to do so and they will do it well!
The most urgent requirement of the moment, however, is for the nation to stand steadfast behind its security forces in this moment of grief. The families of those killed need to be given succour and looked after
The Prime Minister has already condemned the attack and assured that the sacrifice of the soldiers will not go in vain; the government should be given the opportunity to react in the most appropriate manner. The government is already at the job! The Cabinet Committee of Security (CCS) the apex national body on security issues has already held a meeting to assess the situation and come up with an action plan. A team of the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has already been dispatched for this purpose; it will undoubtedly boost the internal investigation process and come up with suggestions on what is required to be done to strengthen security. Undoubtedly, the Union Home Minister and National Security Advisor (NSA) will interact with the commanders on the ground and provide them with all support that they need to face the emerging security challenges.
One would also expect the political parties in Kashmir, especially the local mainstream entities like the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to come up with a workable plan to mobilize its cadre to control the situation! They can make a big contribution in isolating their people from the machinations of the enemy. It is notable here that such parties have been speaking about the inconvenience being caused to civilians due to convoy movement, it is such pressures on the security forces that lead to situations of the type that we have in hand now.
It is also expected that all national political parties will leave their personal vendettas and agendas behind and join as one to meet the challenge posed by the enemy through the medium of this attack. This is not the time to make political brownie points through a blame game.
That our soldiers are the best in the world and not afraid to give their lives for the country is amply proved time and again, it is now up to the Nation to stand up for them.
(Jaibans Singh is a reputed security analyst, columnist and commentator. This article was written by him for Indian Defence Review: www.indiandefencereview.com)
(This article was first published in Indian Defence Review. Read the original article on www.indiandefencereview.com)
Dr (Col.) A. Balasubramanian
