India’s Trump Card

With Donald Trump getting elected as the President of the United States of America, there is both anxiety and anticipation about what changes he will bring forth, considering his decisive yet maverick personality. But impact will be there, and hard-hitting, be it in geopolitics, foreign policy, immigration, internal America-first policy, trade and tariff, or a bloated bureaucracy. One silver lining is that he seems pro-India, as evidenced in some of his key appointments, but is that assurance enough?

The 2024 US presidential elections are over. Donald Trump won, despite many odds. He will take over as President of the US on 20th January 2025. In the meantime, he is busy selecting his team for top executive posts.

Trump’s win has gone contrary to all opinion polls and expert-views of think tanks. Not only in the US, but all over the world, people are anxious about his working in Trump 2.0. Many are worried about his unique style of functioning which was evident during his earlier stint (2016-20).

Larger mandate

The fact remains that this time he has emerged stronger and more popular as per the votes polled. He not only won the votes in the electoral college, but also the popular votes of the people. His win in the presidential elections is coupled with his win in the Senate and also the House of Representatives. It came as a surprise that even a proportion of Latinos and Blacks, who are traditionally wedded to the Democratic Party, voted for the Republican Party this time. And, in spite of Kamala Harris being of Indian origin, a big proportion of Indian Americans voted for Donald Trump, rather than her.

Trump impact

America being the most powerful and richest country of the world, the US President has an enormous impact globally, and Trump is no exception. Rather, he is being discussed more so, because of his unconventional style of functioning. People are speculating about his impact this time, and my column is also an attempt at analysing that.

MAGA mantra

Definitely, Trump will start with an American-centric policy, as his electoral plank has been MAGA (make America great again). His working will revolve around ‘America-First’ and that may not be liked by many, whether in the US or outside.

Trump has proposed to constitute a new department DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), to be headed by billionaires Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. The work of this department will be to prune bureaucracy and the expenses thereon. The initial target is to reduce the expenses of $500 billion per year.

Surgical strike

It is a fact that the US economy is reeling under a huge debt burden, and the same requires immediate surgical correction. Trump feels that there are huge unnecessary expenses that add up to create a huge debt. For example, Vivek Ramaswamy (of Indian origin) has commented that the US has hired Pakistan government owned Roosevelt Hotel in New York for a rent of around 200 million dollars to keep illegal immigrants. Earlier, this Pakistani hotel was not in a functional state, and this kindness was shown to help Pakistan in the IMF deal. Theoretically, the pruning of the bloated bureaucracy is a good step, but the state machinery that is being hit will never like it.

Plug on immigrants

Throughout his election campaign, Trump focussed on ‘illegal immigrants in the USA It is true that the undocumented population number is very high, and they are a drain on the US economy. Taxpayer money gets spent on them and they also affect employment for real citizens. As per an estimate, the number of illegal immigrants in USA is 12.3 million, which includes the maximum from Mexico, El Salvador and thirdly from India at 7.5 lakh. Illegal immigrants consume a sizable proportion of welfare measures at a big cost to the national exchequer. The President-elect has selected Tom Homan to work as the ‘border czar’ for deportation as well as putting a plug on new illegal immigrants.

This policy of Trump has been liked by his voters, but has also been criticised both domestically and globally. Human rights activists are highly critical of the proposed action. Even some US citizens feel that they will get deprived of the now available cheap labour. The illegal immigrants moving back to their native countries will find themselves an unwelcome burden. Our own India will find it difficult to rehabilitate Americanised Indians.

Tariff threat

One pet talk of Trump is about tariff. He feels that to promote local manufacturing, tariffs on imports have to be increased. He has said that on an average, tariff will be increased for all imports by 10% and there will also be a penal category for imports from China, Mexico and Canada. The penal tariff will be about 60 per cent. There is talk going on globally that it will immensely affect the global trade environment. There can be a possible tit-for-tat in world trade. Even Americans feel that this administrative action may increase the price of their daily consumables. Even for us in India, we have seen during the first stint of Trump, that he was slightly harsh about commenting on our tariff vis-à-vis the US tariff.

"Trump will start with an American-centric policy as his electoral plank has been MAGA (make America great again). His working will revolve around ‘America-First’ and that may not be liked by many, whether in the US or outside"

For peace, not war

One very positive idea of Trump is regarding wars. He has said that he will bring peace, not war. He seems confident that the Ukraine-Russia war can be halted after he assumes office. It is presumed that he may not be helping Ukraine with weapons and financial assistance as done by outgoing President Biden, which has been fuelling war for more than two years now.

It is also presumed that Putin has a better relationship with Trump than what he had with Biden. The world has seen that Trump travelled all the way to meet North Korean head of state, Kim Jong Un, during his first stint, to cool down the heat created by his eccentric ways. North Korea is close to Russia. As for Israel, Trump may stand behind Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump believes that Israel has the right to self-defence when it is surrounded by enemy countries. Trump has given a warning to Hamas to release all hostages before he joins office in January, or else there will be repercussions.

Stamp on geopolitics

On foreign-cum-economic policy for the world, Trump has given a stiff warning to BRICS that it should not do anything to reduce the strength of the US dollar, or else there will be 100% tariff on imports from their member countries, of which, India is also a member. This warning from Trump came in view of the recent meeting of BRICS countries where it was decided to create or strengthen some other currency so as to reduce the strength of the all-pervading US dollar. These days, our Indian rupee is getting weaker and of the many reasons for it, one reason is Trump’s warning for BRICS.

Trump is very tough even for US associates. NATO will not get assistance the way it was getting during Biden’s regime. NATO countries have been advised to spend their own finance on military hardware, than to only depend on the US. Trump has a liking for bitcoin, and the day he won the election, its value went up to $75,000 for one bitcoin. It is expected that during Trump 2.0, bitcoin will remain a precious asset and there will be better transactional rules for it.

Trump-Modi bonding

It is a known fact that Trump has a friendly relationship with our Prime Minister Modi. Trump keeps on speaking good about him, and Modi keeps on repeating ‘friend Trump’. In this background, it is anticipated that India will have a good relationship with the US during Trump’s presidency. This was seen during Trump 1.0 too. The only area where India has to be cautious is on trade and tariff. US may emerge to have a good strategic relationship with India, as indicated by the initial pointers-selection of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, who are China haters. Also, it is good for India that Mike Waltz is a co-chair of the India Caucus. It is expected that Trump will help India in strategic areas and he may not hesitate in giving us the weapons we need.

The India connect

Trump’s hatred for China may also help us, besides his relationship with our Prime Minister. Indian origin persons or Hindus will be closer to the White House as evident from Trump’s selections so far: Vivek Ramaswamy, Tulsi Gabbard, Usha Vance, Kash Patel, and Dr. Jay Bhattacharya. During Biden’s tenure, we had some tough time related to Khalistani issues and Pannun’s case. With Kash Patel being FBI Director, and Tulsi Gabbard Director of National Intelligence, things may be better now.

Trump has spoken about the Hindus in Bangladesh and their bad condition. It is expected that he may do something to restore Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh. India needs a friendly eastern neighbour and not a government established presumably by the US ‘Deep State’ in Bangladesh, which is anti-India and anti-Hindus.

For global good

India is following a foreign policy which is good for India, as it is for ‘India-First’, and also good for the world. We are not in any camp, nor an associate of any country. We have friendly relationship with USA, along with friendly relationship with Russia. For us, both Trump and Putin are friends, along with friends in France, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Israel, UAE, etc. A good relationship with the US President together with our constructive principles will help us in working together for world peace. The world is one family, and there is no place for war. There is no place for terrorism, but for universal brotherhood. Trump with Modi can do that.